It is August and that means, once again, it is time to take a look forward (and back) to the fantasy football season. As I probably mention every year, I have been playing fantasy football since I was eight years old, making this my 22nd year, so this is something that I began doing before I had the internet and before fantasy football was cool. I don't know if that makes me any more credible, but it sounds good, right?
So, before I get to my 2018 rankings for quarterbacks, let us take a look back at how my predictions went from 2017.
Picked No. 1 for 2017, Tom Brady. Actually finished: 2. Very good
selection. When Tom Brady says he is going to play for five more years, he means very, very well. I was good to trust that.
Picked No. 2 for 2017, Aaron Rodgers. Actually finished: 28. Rodgers obviously was injured for a good portion of 2017. Even so, he was seventh for QBs in average points per game, which still makes his season a bit of a disappointment. Not a great pick.
Picked No. 3 for 2017, Derek Carr. Actually finished: 16. I said in my predictions last year, " I truly believe that Carr will take another step forward." WRONG.
Picked No. 4 for 2017, Matt Ryan. Actually finished: 15. This is not going well. Yet another that was not even close to correct. I did not see Ryan's fall coming.
Picked No. 5 for 2017, Kirk Cousins. Actually finished: 8. Not too far off. If he had any talent around him apart from a concussion-plauged tight end, he'd be great. Maybe if he's with another team...
Picked No. 6 for 2017, Matthew Stafford. Actually finished: 5. Just about right on the money. This is starting to turn around.
Picked. No. 7 for 2017, Marcus Mariota. Actually finished: 22. Not sure what I was thinking here.
Picked No. 8 for 2017, Drew Brees. Actually finished: 10. Pretty solid choice here.
Picked No. 9 for 2017, Eli Manning. Actually finished: 18. This was a stretch to begin with, and yet another one where I was clearly out of my mind.
Picked No. 10 for 2017, Russell Wilson. Actually finished: 1. I vastly underrated Wilson. He had an amazing season, finishing more than 40 points ahead of second-ranked Brady.
I most certainly did not see Alex Smith and Philip Rivers finishing in the top five last year. Carson Wentz' ascension was also a surprise. Hard to believe he was still top 10 despite missing the last few games of the year. I hope that this year goes a little better. I had what I would consider 4-out-of-10 correct or acceptable picks, so let's see how I do this year. Without further ado, here are my 2018 top 10 QBs:
1. Tom Brady: Hasn't been wrong for a decade to pick Brady up here, and if last year was any indication it would be a mistake to think anything else this year.
2. Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers is still one of the best and most productive quarterbacks in the NFL. He will be healthy, and with a new TE target in Jimmy Graham, one can't go wrong with A-Rod at two.
3. DeShaun Watson: Assuming Watson is healthy, he is in a great position to dominate again. He was by far the best in average points per game last year. This also bolstered DeAndre Hopkins, who is one of the most talented WR in the league. Watson is also a running and touchdown threat. Again, assuming health, and he got hurt early enough last year to think that, he certainly has a ceiling this high.
4. Kirk Cousins: A lot of people do not believe in Kirk Cousins. However, and this is not because I'm a Vikings fan, but he will actually have some weapons this year, something he hasn't really ever had in Washington, so I think he is going to have a career year. Potential for 5k yards and 30 touchdowns.
5. Matthew Stafford: Always a solid performer, Stafford will likely not have a reliable running game, meaning he'll be forcing the ball to several strong receiving options.
6. Russell Wilson: I feel Wilson's 2017 was a bit of a fluke. He'll still be solid, but his top receiving threat is getting older, and he also lost Graham, too.
7. Matt Ryan: I'm not sure what the heck happened to the Falcons and Ryan last year, but with Julio Jones and a strong running duo, I think Ryan is due for a bit of a bounce-back year.
8. Jared Goff: Goff showed that he is a very good quarterback, finishing 11th in fantasy points for QBs last year. He should continue to improve as the Rams are a good team with a decent amount of weapons and should gain confidence in Goff.
9. Patrick Mahomes III: This is my sleeper pick. Anybody who drafts Mahomes as a top-10 QB would probably be considered off their rocker, but I think Mahomes, despite being a first-year starter, will be a stud. Watson did it, and I think Mahomes has just as many skills. He'll have Hunt to rely on in the run and pass game, and Tyreek Hill is a great weapon for a young QB.
10. Drew Brees: This could be Drew Brees' final year in the top 10. He was barely top 10 a year ago, and while a lot of people will go with a more sexy pick like Jimmy Garapollo, I think Brees has the tools still and most definitely the weapons to have a strong year.
Obviously Garappolo has a lot of upside. I always try and find someone who would be a surprise top-10 guy, but who I can draft in the 8th round or later. Obviously I'll be targeting Mahomes, but if he isn't available, another guy that I would think about drafting would be Tyrod Taylor or Blake Bortles. Sure they play for either terrible teams (Taylor) or are terrible themselves (Bortles), but fantasy is about the numbers, and they both have a lot of weapons to put up numbers whether in garbage time or elsewhere. Plus, they both run.
Next week I'll rank my top 10 RBs.
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