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Tuesday, August 21, 2018

Final Fantasy Football preview: TE

This will be the final blog for everyone's fantasy football benefit, and I will focus on tight ends. This is often an overlooked position, but a top tier tight end or a decent one that is drafted very late, can be extremely valuable. This of course is the final blog on fantasy because the season is quickly approaching us, and because kickers and defenses don't really matter, kickers most especially. I'll give my thoughts on them after my TE rankings, however. As for those fickle tight ends, there are a couple of strategies. One can always pick up one of the top options, as tight ends don't tend to have too much turnover at the top, and get one of those solid TEs in the third to sixth round. The second option is to wait until the third to last pick or so and taking someone that has a lot of upside, or being very diligent on the waiver wire to find someone who can service as a starting tight end, thus allowing the drafter to take more WR/RB or QB in the earlier rounds.

Before we get to my rankings for this year, let's look back at how I did a year ago:

 Picked No. 1 for 2017, Jordan Reed. Actually finished: 33. I advocated not taking a tight end early last season, but said that Reed was a high-upside gamble. That upside did not show itself last seaosn, as played in only six games, and he only had one good one.
Picked No. 2 for 2017, Rob Gronkowski. Actually finished: 1.Good decision here, but it was not a tough one. He finished first despite missing two games. He would have been the 11th ranked receiver in points, so having him as a TE is like having another WR1 almost.
Picked No. 3 for 2017, Kyle Rudolph. Actually finished: 7. Rudolph did not quite have the same rapport with Case Keenum as he did with Bradford, which hurt him some. 
Picked No. 4 for 2017, Greg Olsen: Actually finished: 49. Olsen was injured from week three to week 12, and it was the first time that Olsen was ever hurt that significantly in his career. He hadn't missed a single game since 2007, so bad luck.
Picked No. 5 for 2017, Delanie Walker. Actually finished: 6.Good pick here. He had a solid season as expected.

As for 2018, here are my ranks for TE:

1. Rob Gronkowski: He is getting older (29) and he does tend to get injured, but he is also still with Brady, still on the Patriots and most importantly, still Gronk.
2. Zach Ertz: Last year's No. 3 TE, he should benefit that Trey Burton (2017's No. 26 TE) will be out of the picture this year (Burton is playing for Chicago). It shouldn't matter whether it is Foles or Wentz at QB either. He did well with either, averaging double digit points under both QBs.
3. Travis Kelce: Though he may dip a bit from his 192-point, second place finish a year ago with a new and inexperienced QB at the helm in KC, Kelce is still a big, reliable target, and should still push 150+ in points this year.
4. Evan Engram: Engram is almost a WR. He is a pure receiving TE, and he will be an even more familiar target for Eli and the Giants in 2018 than he was in his rookie campaign, where he finished fifth among TEs.
5. Kyle Rudolph: Rudolph is the Vikes redzone go-to, and he has a much better QB throwing to him this year, who happens to enjoy throwing to TEs. Expect his numbers to stay pretty close to a year ago, if not go up.

Others worth taking in 5-7 round range: Delanie Walker, Jimmy Graham. Sleepers to take in 13-15 round: OJ Howard, Jack Doyle, Austin Hooper, George Kittle and David Njoku.

As for kickers, as a say every year, there is only one thing that puts one kicker over another: kicking indoors. Free from the varying winds, kickers who play at least half of their games in domes can be more accurate. That's my only advice. Take a kicker with your last pick, and take one that kicks indoors, there are eight teams with an indoor stadiums, so chances are an indoor kicker will be left no matter what.

Lastly, team defenses. Most fantasy leagues employ a team defense in their lineup. I almost always take a defense in the second to last or last round. There are a couple of ways that I approach them. Pick out a defense or two or three that you believe can possibly perform week in and week out, and if they are available when you feel comfortable tacking a defense, then take them and ride with them all season, or as I call it, the lazy method. Or, do what I normally do, which is draft based on week one match-ups and then each week evaluate whether there is a better defense for that week that could be picked up. This is called streaming. Good defensive match-ups to look for are defenses that are playing backup QBs, rookie QBs, turnover prone teams or teams with weak special teams.

I hope all of this helps someone. I know writing it really gets my juices flowing for the season!

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