Running back is always an essential position in fantasy football. With the exception of quarterbacks, running backs score the most points because they both run and receive passes, and are often focal points of offenses. Unlike QBs though, RBs are much more scarce in both quality and quantity. That is in prime effect this season. I expect the first round of most drafts, especially those such as my own (.5 points per reception (PPR), will be littered with RBs. I think this is a smart strategy, and urge those who want to do well to take a first-round back this year. As for your second RB, based on mock drafts that I have both seen and participated in, there seems to be a lot of value in the 4-6 rounds in 10-12 team drafts for RB. One can draft a guy like Jay Ajayi or Dion Lewis, for example, in the 4-5 round range, and should have a very capable RB2. Obviously, loading up on RB in draft, even if they are backups or handcuffs is smart, because then one doesn't end up blowing waiver position or budget on someone down the road.
Let's take a look back at how I did predicting RB rankings a year ago:
Picked No. 1 for 2017, David Johnson. Actually finished:122. Obviously the early-season wrist break ended his season prematurely after scoring just 10 points. He was a consensus No. 1 pick a year ago, so I'm not too disappointed.
Picked No. 2 for 2017, Leveon Bell. Actually finished: 3. Nearly right on. Wasn't too tough a pick though.
Picked No. 3 for 2017, Devonta Freeman. Actually finished: 15. He missed a couple of games, but he also had his touches reduced quite a bit. Did not see his descent down from elite RB to RB2. It was a weird year in Atlanta.
Picked. No. 4 for 2017, LeSean McCoy. Actually finished: 7. Not too far off. As I stated in my preview a year ago, Shady is strong if he can stay healthy. He did in 2017.
Picked No. 5 for 2017, Melvin Gordon. Actually finished: 5. Hot damn! I was right on here. I knew that he would have a good year. I expect he'll be in the top five this year as well.
Picked No. 6 for 2017, DeMarco Murray. Actually finished: 24. Well, the now-retired back was mostly a dud a year ago in Titanville and he couldn't even find a team that wanted him this offseason.
Picked No. 7 for 2017, Isaiah Crowell. Actually finished: 33. I was a big believer in Crowell last year, but he never panned out in Cleveland. He is a Jet now, and is only 25, but don't expect to see him in my top 10 again!
Picked No. 8 for 2017, Jay Ajayi. Actually finished: 38. Another miss. Ajayi got traded to the Eagles midseason and was never really able to get enough to touches to make magic in Philly. He had merely 80 touches in 70 games despite averaging 5.8 yards per carry, but only scored twice.
Picked No. 9 for 2017, Christian McCaffrey. Actually finished: 11. Pretty close here. McCaffrey was as expected, a pass catching extraordinaire.
Picked No. 10 for 2017, Danny Woodhead. Actually finished: 74. Not sure what I was thinking here. Woodhead is old for a RB and injury-prone, so this was a pipe dream to think he'd go top 10.
As for this year's rankings, without further ado:
1. Todd Gurley II: I think he is a clear-cut No. 1. What he did, especially throughout the final weeks of the year and the fantasy playoffs was phenomenal. He has to be put at the top, especially since the Rams could be even better.
2. Alvin Kamara: Here is where I differ from a lot of other rankings that one might see. Since this is .5 PPR, Kamara is a great person to put here. He is so dynamic, and with him being the man for the first four games, he's going to destroy defenses this year.
3. Melvin Gordon: That's also another reason why my third pick is far from a lot of others. I think Gordon is going to have a huge year catching the ball. He proved he could remain healthy last season, and I wouldn't put it past him to be between 80-90 receptions this year. The Chargers O-line also improved.
4. Kareem Hunt: Another person that many are pegging as a recession candidate, but I think that he is only going to get better. He will likely be a safety valve for first-year starter Patrick Mahomes, and he is a good enough playmaker to turn that into plenty of fantasy potential.
5. Ezekial Elliot: Elliot should be better this season with a full year of playing and as the sole focus of the offense with Dez gone.
6. LeVeon Bell: Worried that he is at the point of his career that he could breakdown this year. However, the potential to be a top fantasy running back is still there, so I can't drop him down too far.
7. David Johnson: He only broke a bone last year, which shouldn't affect his ability to be a playmaker. He had a huge 2016, and was a consensus No. 1 pick a year ago, so I don't understand why he wouldn't eventually start to put up numbers when he shakes off the rust.
8. Christian McCaffrey: Another supreme talent in an offense that will likely get him the ball in space. If he can get in the endzone a few more times, he'll be a strong candidate to even go up to the top five.
9. Leonard Fournette: Their defense will keep them in close games, so he'll always be getting his fair share of touches. He is Jacksonville's most talented weapon, so I expect nearly 400 carries this year for 1,500+ yards and 10 touchdowns, but he is lower in this list, because he probably won't do a lot of pass catching.
10. Saquon Barkely: He was an absolute stud in college, and he is in a situation where he can start right away. I can see the Giants using him in an every down role, which is beneficial for fantasy of course.
Just outside the top 10 were Dalvin Cook, Jerrick McKinnon, LeSean McCoy and Kenyan Drake.
My plan this season for RBs is to be sure to get one of those top six or seven guys. I think they can all be very special. It will be a critical point for me. I can take or leave a lot of the runners who will go in the second and third rounds, so I'd likely get a strong WR and a top TE or two strong WR to fill out my roster before I draft my second and third RBs in the fourth to sixth rounds.
Stay tuned for WR next week!
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