Tight Ends: The last frontier

The final piece of advice that I implore on those about to do their fantasy draft in this final week before the NFL season begins, wait on tight ends. The top tight ends from a year ago are either injury prone or old. I feel like you are better off trying to find the next Cameron Brate or waiting to take a safer pick (Kyle Rudolph, Delanie Walker).

First, lets take a look at my predictions for TE's a year ago:
Picked No. 1 for 2016, Rob Gronkowski: Actually finished: 24. This is always the risk with Gronk. He could get hurt and miss several games.
Picked No. 2 for 2016, Travis Kelce. Actually finished: 1. Was a pretty easy pick for him to be near the top and with Gronk down, he stepped up.
Picked No. 3 for 2016, Jordan Reed. Actually finished: 9. He effectively played 10 games, so this was a pretty good finish based on his prediction.
Picked No. 4 for 2016, Martellus Bennett. Actually finished: 8. Despite a Gronk injury, Bennett didn't quite live up to his expectations a year ago. I think he'll be even worse in Green Bay, even as a No. 1. 
Picked No. 5 for 2016, Greg Olsen. Actually finished: 3. Good pick. He's always up there. Despite his age (32), he dominated during stretches a year ago.

Here are my tight end ranks for 2017:
1. Jordan Reed: I honestly think, as a receiver, he is more talented than Gronk. Also like Gronk, he has a lot of injury risks, so this is a risky pick. I don't want a top tight end in 2017, because they go too high, but Reed, if healthy, is the best.
2. Rob Gronkowski: He is a transcendent talent, but like Reed, has an injury history. If healthy, he can be a game changer.
3. Kyle Rudolph: Rudolph proved himself to be a favorite target for Sam Bradford a year ago. He should be fully healthy. All this also happened with only 7 TDs. He could easily be in the 10-12 range this season.
4. Greg Olsen: Always solid, but this could be one of his last seasons as a top tier TE.
5. Delanie Walker: Jimmy Graham is a popular high TE pick, but I feel like he and Wilson are still not in the best of sync. Seattle has a ton of weapons and TE doesn't appear to be high priority. Walker is much better off, even with the Titans nabbing a bunch of new weapons. Walker is the most steady.

As always, for kickers and defense, either don't draft one and then pick one up right before the year starts, or if you'd like to have that solid full roster wait until the final two rounds to take a defense and kicker, in that order.

I have a huge batch of photos that can be seen and purchased here.

Fantasy football rankings 3: Wide Receivers

Drafting a top notch wide receiver in a league that is either PPR or like mine, .5 PPR, can be a huge part of season-long fantasy football success. The key is to pinpoint who will be one of the top wideouts and go with it.

First, lets try and learn from my mistakes. This is how I did a year ago:

Picked No. 1 for 2016, Antonio Brown. Actually finished: 1. Not a tough pick to make, and he is expected to do the same again this year.
Picked No. 2 for 2016, Julio Jones. Actually finished: 7. Not a horrible pick, and he got a bit banged up, which hurt him toward the end of the year.
Picked No. 3 for 2016, Odell Beckham Jr. Actually finished: 5. Pretty good pick, but another easy one. He is a stud, and will be for many years to come.
Picked No. 4 for 2016, DeAndre Hopkins. Actually finished: 33. Wow. I was wrong about how absolutely GOD AWFUL Brock Osweiler is. Thankfully he is gone.
Picked No. 5 for 2016, AJ Green. Actually finished: 38. SAD! Injuries derailed his season total, but he was the No. 5 receiver on a per game basis, so really I was right on.
Picked No. 6 for 2016, Dez Bryant. Actually finished: 35. Another poor pick. Injuries derailed him in 2016, and I'm staying away after two injury-plagued years.
Picked No. 7 for 2016, Allen Robinson. Actually finished: 28. The league finally got wise to Bortles' late-game chuck and pray, and Bortles' regression really hurt Robinson.
Picked No. 8 for 2016, Keenan Allen. Actually finished: 176. He was again totally unlucky, tearing his ACL in week 1. It was the second year Allen has missed significant time, but seemed fluky. Picked No. 9 for 2016, Mike Evans. Actually finished: 3. Wasn't high enough on him.
Picked No. 10 for 2016, Brandon Marshall. Actually finished: 53.He was hurt and played with Jets. That hurts anyone.

For 2017 I will rank how my WR will respond to PPR or .5 PPR drafts.
1. AJ Green:  I think a fully healthy AJ Green is poised to have a great year. Cincinnati drafted several weapons to bolster the offense, and this should take some pressure of AJ Green, which could lead to more open plays to the big play machine and Andy Dalton's go-to guy.
2. Julio Jones: Atlanta says they are going to target Julio more in the red zone, which makes sense, since he is like 6-foot-5 and super athletic. This means more touchdowns, which should keep him at the top of the WR charts.
3. Antonio Brown: Originally had OBJ here, but after the injury, I pushed Brown up. Pretty hard to argue with his production. As Big Ben's go-to man, Brown has had over 100 catches and 1,200 yards in each of the last four seasons. He has also averaged almost 11 touchdowns a year in that span as well. Nobody has been more consistent. Pitt has a great offense, and Brown is a focal point.
4. Brandin Cooks: Tom Brady. Weak conference. About to hit prime years. Check, check, check for Brandin Cooks this year.
5. Amari Cooper: I'm honestly bewildered why he isn't ranked higher on most people's lists. Derek Carr was fantastic a year ago, and he proved that Cooper was easily his most favorite target. Both have another year under their belts, and should benefit greatly.
6. Odell Beckham Jr.: OBJ sprained his ankle Monday night, but he's lucky that is all he did. They are saying that he might miss week one. I would say that a cautious Giants team, which should be in playoff contention this season, will keep him out a couple more. He is still going to be great when he gets back and is healthy, but I dropped him down three spots because I believe he'll miss 2-3 weeks.
7. Mike Evans: I'm not buying the top five Mike Evans hype, but mainly that's because I'm not buying the Jameis Winston hype. Winston still makes poor decisions and is reckless, but not in a Brett Favre kind of way. Evans is a beast, and he will get great fantasy numbers, no doubt, but I see him in a second tier of WR, not the top one.
8. Jordy Nelson: This might be Nelson's last foray in the top 10 of WR. He is getting up there in age (32) and not even Aaron Rodgers can make up for Father Time. His ypc has been declining and took a big step down a year ago. Expect everything else to as well, especially touchdowns.
9. Michael Thomas: Thomas could be a flash in the pan, but I highly doubt it. He isn't as great of a dynasty pick because once Brees leaves, who knows what will happen, but for 2017, Thomas as the No. 1 wideout for a Brees-led offense is a great second-tier WR1.
10. Doug Baldwin: I know what you're thinking: 'Really!?' Hear me out. Baldwin has been getting more and more targets each season as he has proven that he is a top-talent at wide receiver. He is depended on by Russell Wilson to make not only big plays, but also bubble screens, slants and other shorter routes. Expect him to be 1,000+ yards, 8-10 TD and 85-95 rec. again.

I have a big fantasy football draft coming up, Saturday, so I'll be working hard on rankings and mock drafts the next few days. A recap of that and a look at the top 5 TE's will be coming in next week's blog.

Thanks for reading, and enjoy some photos from Amateur baseball and the Morrison County Fair's mud races. Photos

Fantasy Rankings Week 2: RB's

Running backs as always are a key position in fantasy football. With the potential as rushers and pass catchers, RBs provide a lot of points to fantasy owners, and often make up the majority of picks in the first few rounds of a draft. At the top of the draft there are some heavy-hitting backs, but I also think that some diamonds in the rough shine later in the second and third rounds and even later, that could bring No. 1 or No. 2 RB value.

First, let's take a look at how I did at the volatile RB position a year ago:

Picked No. 1 for 2016, Adrian Peterson. Actually finished: 131.Talk about off. Whew, Peterson getting hurt was not in the cards.
Picked No. 2 for 2016, Todd Gurley. Actually finished: 17.Whiff. Missed again. He disappointed in 2016.
Picked No. 3 for 2016, Lamar Miller. Actually finished: 18. He missed two games, but that really wasn't the whole reason for the drop. Brock Osweiler was. He's gone, thankfully.
 Picked No. 4 for 2016, Ezekiel Elliot. Actually finished: No. 2. Pretty good choice here. Zeke was a beast as a rookie.
Picked No. 5 for 2016, Mark Ingram. Actually finished: 9. Not off by too much. I banked on a big year from him, and he sort of delivered. Not expecting so this year.
Picked No. 6 for 2016, Devonta Freeman. Actually finished: 6. Spot on here. Expect more of the same in 2017.
Picked No. 7 for 2016, David Johnson. Actually finished: 1. I didn't completely buy into the David Johnson hype, and that was a mistake.
Picked No. 8 for 2016, Le'Veon Bell. Actually finished: 3. Can't believe he put up the numbers that he did whilst missing a chunk of games for being suspended.
Picked No. 9 for 2016, LeSean McCoy. Actually finished: 4. He rose even higher than I expected, but a decent pick.
Picked No. 10 for 2016, Thomas Rawls. Actually finished: 62. Just couldn't stay healthy. SAD!

As for 2017, my rankings are as follows:
1. David Johnson: He is a consensus No. 1. A great pass catcher with a ton of talent on a solid offense. He's the real deal.
2. Le'Veon Bell: If he can pull off even 80% of what he did last year this year, over a full season, he'll be up near the top.
3. Devonta Freeman: He just signed a big deal to be THE MAN in Hotlanta. He should be a stud for a few years for sure. Might need to jump into the 7th or 8th round to handcuff with Tevin Coleman, however.
4. LeSean McCoy: If healthy, Shady proved he can be a huge performer. Another that I'd snap up his handcuff (likely Jonathan Williams) too.
5. Melvin Gordon: He's also not a bet to stay healthy, but is in a good situation in LA, and could very well run near the top once again.
6. DeMarco Murray: Tennesee has one of the top OL's in the league, and Murray has at least one more season in him at an elite level. The addition of pass threats will help the Titans get more holes for Murray as well.
7. Isaiah Crowell: Another big, powerful back behind a great OL. Crowell is a true three-down back, and his pass catching will propel him up the ranks in 2017.
8. Jay Ajayi: Will not suffer with Jay Cutler at the helm. RBs have historically done well under Cutler and Adam Gase. Especially early on, expect the 'Phins to lean on Ajayi.
9. Christian McCaffrey: He is an exceptional talent. He is like a more athletic Danny Woodhead. The Panthers won't be afraid to give him the rock 20 times a game, which could mean big time production.
10. Danny Woodhead: Speaking of Woodhead. He may be old for a RB (32) and coming off an injury, but assuming he remains shifty and sure of hand, he could be productive as the top back for the Ravens.

Hope these rankings, which are for PPR formats are helpful. Next week we'll take a look the deepest position, WR.

Enjoy a few photos from our smugmug from Region 8C weekend 2 in Avon.

Fantasy rankings week 1: Quarterback

Album reviews are suspended here at The Full TO for the next four to five weeks, because it is time for my annual fantasy football rankings. This week, as is usual, I will begin with quarterbacks.



First, lets take a look at how I did last year:
*Note: These are based on 6 points for passing touchdowns, because that is what my main fantasy league goes by (not my decision).

 Picked No. 1 for 2016, Drew Brees. Actually finished: 2. Very good selection.  A lot of people thought he might fall off due to age, but that was certainly not the case.
 Picked No. 2 for 2016, Ben Roethlisberger. Actually finished: 11. He was hurt a couple times on some vicious hits. By average his rank was actually 7th. 
Picked No. 3 for 2016, Aaron Rodgers. Actually finished: 1. Underestimated Rodgers, but he had healthy receivers and showed that he is still very much in his prime.
Picked No. 4 for 2016, Russell Wilson. Actually finished: 13. Had some injury issues early on in the year, which limited his mobility. That hurt his ranks.
Picked No. 5 for 2016, Matthew Stafford. Actually finished: 6. The QB I targeted last season proved to be fortuitous.
Picked No. 6 for 2016, Andrew Luck. Actually finished: 5. Another really good job, Luck did a lot without much help offensively. He has a couple of talented receivers and Frank Gore keeps Goring.
Picked No. 7 for 2016, Cam Newton. Actually finished: 21. I was not expecting the precipitous fall of the Panthers after going 15-1 in 2015. That hurt Newton.
Picked No. 8 for 2016, Derek Carr. Actually finished: 7. Another strong pick, and I expect him to be even better this year, now that the Cooper/Crabtree combo is legit.
Picked No. 9 for 2016, Blake Bortles. Actually finished: 10. Pretty spot on with Bortles, who is awful in real life, but continues to put up fantasy numbers.
Picked No. 10 for 2016, Philip Rivers. Actually finished: 9. Pretty well done.

All in all it was pretty solid apart from a few selections. However, quarterbacks are pretty much the easiest to choose from year-to-year. If I can get six or seven more or less right in the top 10, that makes my odds pretty good. I just need to find value again this season like I did last year with Stafford.

My picks for 2017 at the QB position:
1. Tom Brady: Everybody is making a huge deal about Brady being 40. Big deal. That won't slow him down a bit. Actually with the skills of Brandin Cooks in his stable now, this year could be as close to the record-setting 2008 Brady as we'll ever see this year.
2. Aaron Rodgers: Pretty hard to overlook Rodgers after what he did a year ago. Add the giant Martellus Bennett roaming in the red zone and over the middle and Rodgers is poised for another giant year.
3. Derek Carr: I truly believe that Carr will take another step forward. He should be fully recovered from his broken leg, and I expect that Cooper/Crabtree will be great again and Marshawn Lynch could help open up some passing lanes too.
4. Matt Ryan: Pretty hard to argue with the guy who tosses it up to Julio Jones. Jones had injury issues all year and still put up great numbers, helping Ryan. He also benefited from young guys like TE Austin Hooper and RB Tevin Coleman hauling in passes and making plays.
5. Kirk Cousins: I don't really like Kirk Cousins as a quarterback. At least not in real life. In fantasy, he has thrown for nearly 5,000 yards for two straight years, and with Terrelle Pryor, who broke out last year, in his corner. He should be just as good.
6. Matthew Stafford: I expect Stafford to hold pat here at No. 6, but he'll also be drafted like he is the No. 6 QB, so I'll be avoiding him on my team's this year. Kenny Golloday could be a good deep threat addition for Stafford.
7. Marcus Mariota: Mariota should really be poised to make a step up this year. It's his third season and the Titans added a ton of weapons (Eric Decker, Corey Davis) to go along with an already strong arsenal. This means only good things for Mariota should he stay healthy.
8. Drew Brees: I had Ryan Tannehill in this spot, but we'll move Brees up one since Tannehill is out for the season. I think Brees will probably dip a little due to both age and the loss of Brandin Cooks.
9. Eli Manning: Adding some great weapons in Brandon Marshall and rookie TE Evan Engram should really help Manning put up some great numbers. He seems to have good fantasy years in odd years. Plus, OBJ.
10. Russell Wilson: A healthy Russell Wilson should rack up some rushing yards, and he's a very good passer too. I contemplated putting Roethlisberger and Andy Dalton at this spot due to their better assets around them, but Wilson's legs are an even better asset.

My goal, as has been the case for the past 10 years at least, is to try and find one of the two or three QB's who are being drafted in the 15+ range, but who produces top 5 or top 10 numbers. It worked really well last year. This helps me focus on racking up RB and WR in the first 8-10 rounds, and sneaking a guy like Eli Manning or Marcus Mariota in the 11-12th round. Honestly, Tannehill was that guy for me until he got hurt. Going to have to re-evaluate before my draft, Aug. 26.

I will rank the ever-important running back next week. In the mean time, Here is a link to the photos I uploaded to smugmug for this week: Legion state and Region 8C weekend 1.
 

Run For Cover

The much anticipated album "Wonderful Wonderful" by The Killers comes out later this month, but the band recently released the album's second single, "Run For Cover." I must say, it certainly harkens back to the hay days of the band, but also adds some of the dimension of a band that is on its fifth studio album. "The Man," the album's first single was also strong, but this is on a crazy different level, and it gets me excited for the rest of the album.

I have a ton of photos from baseball events arranging from VFW to Rox baseball. Enjoy. Fantasy rankings start next week :)

Luke Girtz takes a big hack in the District 6 Title game against Albany, July 21.

Shortstop Preston Rocheleau rears back to fire to Noah Boser at first base.

Jesse Marshik runs up to haul in a fly ball to right field.

Upsala's Ben Burggraff walks off after Randall took the lead in a Region play-in game, July 21. Upsala got the win though.

Brett Strack slides in for the go-ahead run.

Strack reaches for the plate as Burggraff awaits the ball.

Cubs third baseman, Michael Fregin, tosses to first.

Brock Cichon, the Upsala shortstop, ranges back into left field to make a catch.

Randall catcher Alec Zack backhands a ball that was way outside.

The Blue Jays' Eric Lampert takes a healthy hack at a letters-high pitch.

Randall's Thomas Kunkel with a big swing. 

Randall pitcher Derek Poser gets back to first as John Fuchs of Upsala awaits a throw over from the pitcher.

Cichon prepares to slide head first into third as Fregin awaits a throw from the outfield.

Cichon rips one down the line in left.

Matt Swanson was the southpaw hurler for the Jays.

Kyle Boser pitches for the St. Cloud Rox in his first start of the summer, July 20.

Boser lays in wait as the game is about to start.

Nik Durfee with a big hack at a ball in the VFW's loss to Sauk Rapids, U