Drafting a top notch wide receiver in a league that is either PPR or like mine, .5 PPR, can be a huge part of season-long fantasy football success. The key is to pinpoint who will be one of the top wideouts and go with it.
First, lets try and learn from my mistakes. This is how I did a year ago:
Picked No. 1 for 2016, Antonio Brown. Actually finished: 1. Not a tough
pick to make, and he is expected to do the same again this year.
Picked No. 2 for 2016, Julio Jones. Actually finished: 7. Not a horrible pick, and he got a bit banged up, which hurt him toward the end of the year.
Picked No. 3 for 2016, Odell Beckham Jr.
Actually finished: 5. Pretty good pick, but another easy one. He is a stud, and will be for many years to come.
Picked No. 4 for 2016, DeAndre Hopkins. Actually finished: 33. Wow. I was wrong about how absolutely GOD AWFUL Brock Osweiler is. Thankfully he is gone.
Picked No. 5 for 2016, AJ Green. Actually finished: 38. SAD! Injuries derailed his season total, but he was the No. 5 receiver on a per game basis, so really I was right on.
Picked No. 6 for 2016, Dez Bryant. Actually finished: 35. Another poor pick. Injuries derailed him in 2016, and I'm staying away after two injury-plagued years.
Picked No. 7 for 2016, Allen Robinson. Actually finished: 28. The league finally got wise to Bortles' late-game chuck and pray, and Bortles' regression really hurt Robinson.
Picked No. 8 for 2016, Keenan Allen. Actually finished: 176. He was again totally unlucky, tearing his ACL in week 1. It was the second year Allen has missed significant time, but seemed fluky.
Picked No. 9 for 2016, Mike Evans. Actually finished: 3. Wasn't high enough on him.
Picked
No. 10 for 2016, Brandon Marshall. Actually finished: 53.He was hurt and played with Jets. That hurts anyone.
For 2017 I will rank how my WR will respond to PPR or .5 PPR drafts.
1. AJ Green: I think a fully healthy AJ Green is poised to have a great year. Cincinnati drafted several weapons to bolster the offense, and this should take some pressure of AJ Green, which could lead to more open plays to the big play machine and Andy Dalton's go-to guy.
2. Julio Jones: Atlanta says they are going to target Julio more in the red zone, which makes sense, since he is like 6-foot-5 and super athletic. This means more touchdowns, which should keep him at the top of the WR charts.
3. Antonio Brown: Originally had OBJ here, but after the injury, I pushed Brown up. Pretty hard to argue with his production. As Big Ben's go-to man, Brown has had over 100 catches and 1,200 yards in each of the last four seasons. He has also averaged almost 11 touchdowns a year in that span as well. Nobody has been more consistent. Pitt has a great offense, and Brown is a focal point.
4. Brandin Cooks: Tom Brady. Weak conference. About to hit prime years. Check, check, check for Brandin Cooks this year.
5. Amari Cooper: I'm honestly bewildered why he isn't ranked higher on most people's lists. Derek Carr was fantastic a year ago, and he proved that Cooper was easily his most favorite target. Both have another year under their belts, and should benefit greatly.
6. Odell Beckham Jr.: OBJ sprained his ankle Monday night, but he's lucky that is all he did. They are saying that he might miss week one. I would say that a cautious Giants team, which should be in playoff contention this season, will keep him out a couple more. He is still going to be great when he gets back and is healthy, but I dropped him down three spots because I believe he'll miss 2-3 weeks.
7. Mike Evans: I'm not buying the top five Mike Evans hype, but mainly that's because I'm not buying the Jameis Winston hype. Winston still makes poor decisions and is reckless, but not in a Brett Favre kind of way. Evans is a beast, and he will get great fantasy numbers, no doubt, but I see him in a second tier of WR, not the top one.
8. Jordy Nelson: This might be Nelson's last foray in the top 10 of WR. He is getting up there in age (32) and not even Aaron Rodgers can make up for Father Time. His ypc has been declining and took a big step down a year ago. Expect everything else to as well, especially touchdowns.
9. Michael Thomas: Thomas could be a flash in the pan, but I highly doubt it. He isn't as great of a dynasty pick because once Brees leaves, who knows what will happen, but for 2017, Thomas as the No. 1 wideout for a Brees-led offense is a great second-tier WR1.
10. Doug Baldwin: I know what you're thinking: 'Really!?' Hear me out. Baldwin has been getting more and more targets each season as he has proven that he is a top-talent at wide receiver. He is depended on by Russell Wilson to make not only big plays, but also bubble screens, slants and other shorter routes. Expect him to be 1,000+ yards, 8-10 TD and 85-95 rec. again.
I have a big fantasy football draft coming up, Saturday, so I'll be working hard on rankings and mock drafts the next few days. A recap of that and a look at the top 5 TE's will be coming in next week's blog.
Thanks for reading, and enjoy some photos from Amateur baseball and the Morrison County Fair's mud races. Photos
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