First, to take care of some business, click HERE for photos from Aug. 14-20.
In 2017 I predicted the Champion Patriots (not that that's something to be proud of) and I had half of the playoff teams correct. The story was not the same as 2018. I put far too much faith in Kirk Cousins being the Vikings' savior, and it came back to bite me real hard. However, I did have 7-of-12 playoff teams correct, so perhaps there is faith yet? Here is what I thought:
Round 1:
NFC
Green Bay(WC) at New Orleans
Carolina (WC) at Philadelphia
AFC
Baltimore (WC) at Houston
Jacksonville (WC) at LA Chargers
Divisional Round:
AFC
Baltimore at New England
LA Chargers at Pittsburgh
NFC
Carolina at LA Rams
Green Bay at Minnesota
Conference Championships:
NFC
Carolina at Minnesota
AFC
Pittsburgh at New England
Super Bowl:
Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota
Champ: Minnesota (34-18) MVP: Kirk Cousins
As you can see, the NFC predictions were atrocious, as Green Bay, Minnesota and Carolina did not make the playoffs. In the AFC it wasn't as bad, but it was not very good either as neither Pittsburgh or Jacksonville made the playoffs, and I didn't have the Chiefs in the playoffs, which is ludicrous. But, it is not he worst. I had 7-of-12 playoff teams right, though not in the right spots. The Patriots were the only of the Conference Championship teams that I had correct, so it was not he best.
How will it go in 2019-20? Follow along below:
Round 1:
NFC
Philadelphia (WC) at Green Bay
Atlanta (WC) at Seattle
AFC
Baltimore (WC) at Cleveland
LA Chargers (WC) at Houston
Divisional Round:
AFC
LA Chargers at New England
Cleveland at Kansas City
NFC
Philadelphia at New Orleans
Seattle at Dallas
Conference Championships:
NFC
Dallas at New Orleans
AFC
LA Chargers at Kansas City
Super Bowl:
Kansas City vs. New Orleans
Champ: Kansas City (40-33) MVP: Patrick Mahomes
Tuesday, August 27, 2019
Tuesday, August 20, 2019
Tight end rankings
There is only one more meaningful category left to share, and that is the tight end. The formula this year is pretty simple: take one of the top three tight ends, or wait. That top tier can make a fantasy team soar, but only if the drafter makes that move at the right time, and can take a few value picks along the way. If not, stock up on backs and receivers, and take a tight end late.
Now, as I always say, wait until the last two picks to take kickers and defenses. That has not changed. I understand the Bears had a great year last year, but that kind of defensive scoring does not carry over on the whole. As for kickers, the only thing that I ever try and do is to take a kicker who plays at home indoors. This is common sense. If the kicker has half his games in a windless stadium, that can help make him more accurate.
So, let's see how I did on tight ends a year ago:
Picked No. 1 for 2018, Rob Gronkowski. Actually finished: 11. I assumed that Gronk would Gronk last year, but he was banged up, and defenses did a better job of slowing him down. Therefore I was a bit off on this one.
Picked No. 2 for 2018, Zach Ertz. Actually finished: 2. Great pick here. He was a target and reception monster, which means well in .5 PPR scoring. He is a main point to the Eagles' offense, and I had this right.
Picked No. 3 for 2018, Travis Kelce. Actually finished: 1. Kelce had a momentous season, and I underestimated him just a bit. He should repeat this. I wasn't 100% sold on Mahomes' superstardom, and that was a mistake.
Picked No. 4 for 2018, Evan Engram: Actually finished: 12. I couldn't have predicted his injury problems, but they may push him lower in 2019. Based on average, he was actually ranked seventh, so it wasn't a terrible pick, just not a great one.
Picked No. 5 for 2018, Kyle Rudolph. Actually finished: 8.Not an awful pick, but Cousins was not the fantasy boon that I expected for the Vikings offense. His production will drop even farther in 2019 with the addition of draft pick Irv Smith Jr.
I would also like to point out that I advocated taking George Kittle, the No. 3 tight end last year.
Without further ado, here are my rankings for 2019:
1. Travis Kelce: With Mahomes and the high-powered Chiefs offense back for round two, Kelce will be the top beneficiary. He should have no problem getting 80+ catches, 1,000+ yards and 10 touchdowns at minimum.
2. George Kittle: Kittle is the best asset at the 49ers disposal and he should continue to be a go-to target in their offense. He proved to be sure-handed last year.
3. Zach Ertz: Although I'm not 100 percent sold on the Eagles as everyone else is, there is no questioning Ertz' firepower as a top-tier tight end. Hopefully Wentz stays healthy.
4. OJ Howard: This is where the second tier begins, and taking any of the following tight ends before round 6 is a no-no. The Bucs are another offense that I'm not sold on, but yet another tight end whose talent will carry him to fantasy success.
5. Vance McDonald: He proved that he could be a reliable target for Big Ben, and he was the No. 10 TE with only four touchdowns, which could easily grow. Another plus is that Antonio Brown's targets will now be spread around, and McDonald should get his share.
6. Hunter Henry 7. Evan Engram 8. Jared Cook 9. David Njoku 10. Austin Hooper
Here is a link to the gallery for sports photos from Aug. 9-13. Enjoy. Here is a preview photo:
Now, as I always say, wait until the last two picks to take kickers and defenses. That has not changed. I understand the Bears had a great year last year, but that kind of defensive scoring does not carry over on the whole. As for kickers, the only thing that I ever try and do is to take a kicker who plays at home indoors. This is common sense. If the kicker has half his games in a windless stadium, that can help make him more accurate.
So, let's see how I did on tight ends a year ago:
Picked No. 1 for 2018, Rob Gronkowski. Actually finished: 11. I assumed that Gronk would Gronk last year, but he was banged up, and defenses did a better job of slowing him down. Therefore I was a bit off on this one.
Picked No. 2 for 2018, Zach Ertz. Actually finished: 2. Great pick here. He was a target and reception monster, which means well in .5 PPR scoring. He is a main point to the Eagles' offense, and I had this right.
Picked No. 3 for 2018, Travis Kelce. Actually finished: 1. Kelce had a momentous season, and I underestimated him just a bit. He should repeat this. I wasn't 100% sold on Mahomes' superstardom, and that was a mistake.
Picked No. 4 for 2018, Evan Engram: Actually finished: 12. I couldn't have predicted his injury problems, but they may push him lower in 2019. Based on average, he was actually ranked seventh, so it wasn't a terrible pick, just not a great one.
Picked No. 5 for 2018, Kyle Rudolph. Actually finished: 8.Not an awful pick, but Cousins was not the fantasy boon that I expected for the Vikings offense. His production will drop even farther in 2019 with the addition of draft pick Irv Smith Jr.
I would also like to point out that I advocated taking George Kittle, the No. 3 tight end last year.
Without further ado, here are my rankings for 2019:
1. Travis Kelce: With Mahomes and the high-powered Chiefs offense back for round two, Kelce will be the top beneficiary. He should have no problem getting 80+ catches, 1,000+ yards and 10 touchdowns at minimum.
2. George Kittle: Kittle is the best asset at the 49ers disposal and he should continue to be a go-to target in their offense. He proved to be sure-handed last year.
3. Zach Ertz: Although I'm not 100 percent sold on the Eagles as everyone else is, there is no questioning Ertz' firepower as a top-tier tight end. Hopefully Wentz stays healthy.
4. OJ Howard: This is where the second tier begins, and taking any of the following tight ends before round 6 is a no-no. The Bucs are another offense that I'm not sold on, but yet another tight end whose talent will carry him to fantasy success.
5. Vance McDonald: He proved that he could be a reliable target for Big Ben, and he was the No. 10 TE with only four touchdowns, which could easily grow. Another plus is that Antonio Brown's targets will now be spread around, and McDonald should get his share.
6. Hunter Henry 7. Evan Engram 8. Jared Cook 9. David Njoku 10. Austin Hooper
Here is a link to the gallery for sports photos from Aug. 9-13. Enjoy. Here is a preview photo:
Wednesday, August 14, 2019
Wide Receiver rankings
Click here to see the gallery for Aug. 1-6.
From here on out, I will be linking galleries from the Record website where you can now purchase photos! CLICK the link above to see the ones from the first week of August.
Wide receivers tend to be the easiest to predict. They aren't banging between the tackles like backs, and if they get targets in a .5 ppr league, it is pretty easy. I think I proved that last year, or maybe I just got lucky that nobody was horribly injured. Or I'm a genius. One of those.
Here is what I said:
Picked No. 1 for 2018, DeAndre Hopkins. Actually finished: 2. Pretty good pick here. He had a great season, and didn't drop a pass. He should be another go-to guy for Watson and the Texans this year.
Picked No. 2 for 2018, Antonio Brown. Actually finished: 4. Not a bad pick here, and he missed week 17 for his wacky reasons. It will be interesting to see what he does for the Raiders, and how the Steelers do without him.
Picked No. 3 for 2018, Michael Thomas. Actually finished: 6. He was very good, and this was a pretty good pick. He certainly got paid for it. Dang.
Picked No. 4 for 2018, Adam Thielen. Actually finished: 7. This was a bit of a surprise pick by me, but I really believed in Thielen, and he sure delivered, especially the first half of the year. I'm going to pat myself on the back for this one.
Picked No. 5 for 2018, DaVante Adams. Actually finished: 3. Yet another very good pick. He's been extremely consistent, and I'm guessing Aaron Rodgers has a lot to do with it.
Picked No. 6 for 2018, Odell Beckham, Jr. Actually finished: 16. He missed four games. His averages would have made him sixth, so in a way I was right.
Picked No. 7 for 2018, Keenan Allen. Actually finished: 13. Was a bit off on this one, but Allen was still a solid pick at No. 7, because he produced some pretty good performances.
Picked No. 8 for 2018, Tyreek Hill. Actually finished: 1. Didn't quite see that Hill was going to have an MVP throwing to him with a ridiculous vigor.
Picked No. 9 for 2018, Juju Smith-Schuster. Actually finished: 9. BOOM. Right on here. Was spot on picking a pair of Steelers in the top 10! He should be just as good or better this year.
Picked No. 10 for 2018, Stefon Diggs. Actually finished: 12.Was not too far off here, but missed out on two Vikings in the top 10. Diggs is really talented, but the new, more run-happy offense could cut into his production a bit.
Anyhow, here are my rankings for 2019 in the WR category:
1. DeAndre Hopkins: He seriously had ZERO drops last year. Duke Johnson should help open the offense, and I think they might be not great this year, so they should be throwing. Though the emergence of Coutee could cut into his targets, but not enough to keep him from being elite.
2. Michael Thomas: Folks might worry that since he got paid, he could drop a bit. However, he is not lazy, and he will keep working. Brees is still there leading the high-powered offense, and he is Brees' top target, easily.
3. Odell Beckham Jr.: OBJ lagged behind mightily due to the poor QB play by Eli Manning. With Baker Mayfield, he will no longer have that problem. Plus defenses won't be able to double him with Landry and Njoku wandering out there.
4. Tyreek Hill: He did not get suspended, so that rocketed him back up my board. He is supremely fast and athletic and has honey-coated hands. He also still has Mahomes throwing to him.
5. DaVante Adams: He might have a new offense, and some young WR competition, but he is still top dog with an all-time QB throwing to him, so he can't drop down too far.
6. Juju Smith-Schuster: I like me some Juju. He is the sole candidate for targets for the Steelers, and should be incredibly consistent as a target monster.
7. Julio Jones: He is still really big and athletic, and learned how to catch touchdowns. Plus he racks up targets and yards, and plays for a big offense.
8. Kennan Allen: The Chargers have a great offense, and Allen should benefit. I think that he will get a lot of catches, though the emergence of big Mike Williams and Hunter Henry could limit his touchdowns, which drops him down a bit.
9. Amari Cooper: He proved once he got to Dallas that he can still play. I think as long as the contract situations turn out, he will be a big-time playmaker for the 'Boys.
10. Adam Thielen: I know that the offense will have some more running, but I expect Thielen will still be the go-to for Cousins.
11. Julian Edelman 12. Mike Evans 13. Stefon Diggs 14. Kenny Golladay 15. Tyler Boyd 16. Jarvis Landry 17. DJ Moore 18. Antonio Brown 19. Corey Davis 20. TY Hilton.
Wednesday, August 7, 2019
Running back rankings/Paris Morton Music
Since I have no pictures, I'm going to start with an album review quick, then I'll get right to the RB rankings.
I can see why most of these songs didn't make it on to a real album, but it makes perfect sense that Drake released a surprise compilation album recently. "Care Package" has all the tracks that Drake had released in between singles from albums and mix tapes.
It certainly has some familiar songs ("5 a.m. in Toronto," "Paris Morton Music," "Trust Issues") and they are pretty dang good. There are also a few that I do not remember, and they are pretty great. Now, my love for Drake started because he was on one of my guilty pleasures "Degrassi: TNG." But I also think he is very talented as a rapper/singer. This continues to showcase this.
As for fantasy football:
Running back is perhaps the most important position in fantasy. Having a dominant running back can be all one needs to ride their way deep into the fantasy football playoffs. During AP's 2,000-yard season, or Ladanian Tomlinson's 28 touchdown year, among others, won people leagues.
However, 2019 does not appear to have that stand-out RB who is going to get like 350-400 touches and absolutely blow up the fantasy landscape. That said, there is an obvious tier system. Within the top 20 there are three clear tiers in my estimation, so that's how we're going to sort these RB rankings.
But first... how did I do a year ago? Let's find out.
Picked No. 1 for 2018, Todd Gurley II. Actually finished:1. BOOM. Not that it was too out on a limb, but exactly right is exactly right!
Picked No. 2 for 2018, Alvin Kamara. Actually finished: 4. Kamara did not have a sophomore slump, and while he wasn't second, pretty dang close.
Picked No. 3 for 2018, Melvin Gordon III. Actually finished: 7. I was a huge proponent of Gordon, and he dealt with a few injuries, or he might have been in the top three like I had predicted. Pretty good call on my part.
Picked. No. 4 for 2018, Kareem Hunt. Actually finished: 13. After the whole video incident, Hunt only played 11 games, so he was probably better than fourth if not for that, so not a bad choice.
Picked No. 5 for 2018, Ezekiel Elliott. Actually finished: 5. Boom No. 2! I was right on here. I knew that he would have a good year. Assuming that he doesn't hold out for more than a couple weeks, he should be back in this position again.
Picked No. 6 for 2018, Leveon Bell. Actually finished: N/A. Well, that was worst pick of the year. I am glad I didn't have him any higher as a lot of folks did, however, he didn't play obviously, and I am cautioning taking him this year as well.
Picked No. 7 for 2018, David Johnson. Actually finished: 11. I was a lot closer than most, because a lot of experts had DJ up near the top 5. He certainly has that capability, but the Cardinals were a dumpster fire a year ago. They should be a bit better with a new offense and Kyler Murray and what not in 2019.
Picked No. 8 for 2018, Christian McCaffrey. Actually finished: 3. A bit of a miss here. I underestimated the amount of volume that the uber-talented McCaffrey would get. Despite a bit of a crap season for the Panthers, he was very good.
Picked No. 9 for 2018, Leonard Fournette. Actually finished: 40. YUCK! He should be so much higher, but he just can't stay healthy or get much help. He plays a full season, see him jump up near this spot. He would have been 12th had his eight-game total of 109 been doubled.
Picked No. 10 for 2018, Saquon Barkley. Actually finished: 2. I certainly underestimated Barkley's talent. Holy crap. He was outstanding as a rookie with over 2,000 all-purpose yards and a ton of fantasy value despite a less-than-stellar Giants offense. He will be tasked with carrying them again this year.
Without further ado, here are my RB rankings for 2019:
Championship-level Tier:
These guys are unquestioned No. 1 backs and no-brainer top 5 picks.
1. Saquon Barkley: Barkley had an unreal season last year on a dumpy offense and as a rookie learning a new offense. With another year under his belt and guaranteed touches as the focal point of the Giants, he is going to be unreal.
2. Christian McCaffrey: He had 107 catches, but scored only 13 total TD. If he scored more, he could be truly transcendent. Again he is the focal point of an offense that likes to use him.
3. Alvin Kamara: Some worry about his durability and how he will handle not having Mark Ingram as a running mate. Honestly, I just see that as more opportunity. Plus, Latavius Murray should pick up Ingram's slack easily.
4. David Johnson: 2016's best RB could have a comeback year under a new coach. Also, Kyler Murray and the passing game should take the pressure off DJ's running, and he's one of the best pass catchers.
Top-five potential, but also some ??? tier:
5. Ezekiel Elliot: He might drop more in the coming weeks, especially with the news that he is not afraid to sit out, but for now, we have to assume he comes back at some point. If he does, he should still be very good.
6. James Conner: Many are expecting the Steelers to drop off, but the line is still there, and so are Juju and Big Ben. Conner is going to see a lot of touches and a lot of scores. He should still be a big scorer.
7. Joe Mixon: There are not too many unquestioned three down backs, and Mixon is one. The Bengals might not be the best offensively, but Mixon is going to get the volume.
8. Damien Williams: I'm not sure how talented Williams is, but he he is productive. Andy Reid, Mahomes and the Chiefs offense is going to be awesome, and Williams appears to be the clear No. 1 back after a strong finish to 2018.
9. LeVeon Bell: I'm tempering my expectations a little on Bell, who has one of the most unique running styles in history. He has been out for a whole year, and will be playing for a new team and a new offense. However, he is supremely talented, and the Jets should be improved.
10. Nick Chubb: Chubb showed a lot of promise last season, and the Browns should only really be better in 2019. That means Chubb is going to be an RB1.
11. Kerryon Johnson 12. Aaron Jones 13. Melvin Gordon
Starter, but not likely to be RB1 tier:
14. Dalvin Cook 15. Todd Gurley II 16. Chris Carson 17. Devonta Freeman 18. Marlon Mack 19. Leonard Fournette 20. Phillip Lindsay.
Wide receivers are up next week!
OK. I'll share one picture from next week as a preview.
I can see why most of these songs didn't make it on to a real album, but it makes perfect sense that Drake released a surprise compilation album recently. "Care Package" has all the tracks that Drake had released in between singles from albums and mix tapes.
It certainly has some familiar songs ("5 a.m. in Toronto," "Paris Morton Music," "Trust Issues") and they are pretty dang good. There are also a few that I do not remember, and they are pretty great. Now, my love for Drake started because he was on one of my guilty pleasures "Degrassi: TNG." But I also think he is very talented as a rapper/singer. This continues to showcase this.
As for fantasy football:
Running back is perhaps the most important position in fantasy. Having a dominant running back can be all one needs to ride their way deep into the fantasy football playoffs. During AP's 2,000-yard season, or Ladanian Tomlinson's 28 touchdown year, among others, won people leagues.
However, 2019 does not appear to have that stand-out RB who is going to get like 350-400 touches and absolutely blow up the fantasy landscape. That said, there is an obvious tier system. Within the top 20 there are three clear tiers in my estimation, so that's how we're going to sort these RB rankings.
But first... how did I do a year ago? Let's find out.
Picked No. 1 for 2018, Todd Gurley II. Actually finished:1. BOOM. Not that it was too out on a limb, but exactly right is exactly right!
Picked No. 2 for 2018, Alvin Kamara. Actually finished: 4. Kamara did not have a sophomore slump, and while he wasn't second, pretty dang close.
Picked No. 3 for 2018, Melvin Gordon III. Actually finished: 7. I was a huge proponent of Gordon, and he dealt with a few injuries, or he might have been in the top three like I had predicted. Pretty good call on my part.
Picked. No. 4 for 2018, Kareem Hunt. Actually finished: 13. After the whole video incident, Hunt only played 11 games, so he was probably better than fourth if not for that, so not a bad choice.
Picked No. 5 for 2018, Ezekiel Elliott. Actually finished: 5. Boom No. 2! I was right on here. I knew that he would have a good year. Assuming that he doesn't hold out for more than a couple weeks, he should be back in this position again.
Picked No. 6 for 2018, Leveon Bell. Actually finished: N/A. Well, that was worst pick of the year. I am glad I didn't have him any higher as a lot of folks did, however, he didn't play obviously, and I am cautioning taking him this year as well.
Picked No. 7 for 2018, David Johnson. Actually finished: 11. I was a lot closer than most, because a lot of experts had DJ up near the top 5. He certainly has that capability, but the Cardinals were a dumpster fire a year ago. They should be a bit better with a new offense and Kyler Murray and what not in 2019.
Picked No. 8 for 2018, Christian McCaffrey. Actually finished: 3. A bit of a miss here. I underestimated the amount of volume that the uber-talented McCaffrey would get. Despite a bit of a crap season for the Panthers, he was very good.
Picked No. 9 for 2018, Leonard Fournette. Actually finished: 40. YUCK! He should be so much higher, but he just can't stay healthy or get much help. He plays a full season, see him jump up near this spot. He would have been 12th had his eight-game total of 109 been doubled.
Picked No. 10 for 2018, Saquon Barkley. Actually finished: 2. I certainly underestimated Barkley's talent. Holy crap. He was outstanding as a rookie with over 2,000 all-purpose yards and a ton of fantasy value despite a less-than-stellar Giants offense. He will be tasked with carrying them again this year.
Without further ado, here are my RB rankings for 2019:
Championship-level Tier:
These guys are unquestioned No. 1 backs and no-brainer top 5 picks.
1. Saquon Barkley: Barkley had an unreal season last year on a dumpy offense and as a rookie learning a new offense. With another year under his belt and guaranteed touches as the focal point of the Giants, he is going to be unreal.
2. Christian McCaffrey: He had 107 catches, but scored only 13 total TD. If he scored more, he could be truly transcendent. Again he is the focal point of an offense that likes to use him.
3. Alvin Kamara: Some worry about his durability and how he will handle not having Mark Ingram as a running mate. Honestly, I just see that as more opportunity. Plus, Latavius Murray should pick up Ingram's slack easily.
4. David Johnson: 2016's best RB could have a comeback year under a new coach. Also, Kyler Murray and the passing game should take the pressure off DJ's running, and he's one of the best pass catchers.
Top-five potential, but also some ??? tier:
5. Ezekiel Elliot: He might drop more in the coming weeks, especially with the news that he is not afraid to sit out, but for now, we have to assume he comes back at some point. If he does, he should still be very good.
6. James Conner: Many are expecting the Steelers to drop off, but the line is still there, and so are Juju and Big Ben. Conner is going to see a lot of touches and a lot of scores. He should still be a big scorer.
7. Joe Mixon: There are not too many unquestioned three down backs, and Mixon is one. The Bengals might not be the best offensively, but Mixon is going to get the volume.
8. Damien Williams: I'm not sure how talented Williams is, but he he is productive. Andy Reid, Mahomes and the Chiefs offense is going to be awesome, and Williams appears to be the clear No. 1 back after a strong finish to 2018.
9. LeVeon Bell: I'm tempering my expectations a little on Bell, who has one of the most unique running styles in history. He has been out for a whole year, and will be playing for a new team and a new offense. However, he is supremely talented, and the Jets should be improved.
10. Nick Chubb: Chubb showed a lot of promise last season, and the Browns should only really be better in 2019. That means Chubb is going to be an RB1.
11. Kerryon Johnson 12. Aaron Jones 13. Melvin Gordon
Starter, but not likely to be RB1 tier:
14. Dalvin Cook 15. Todd Gurley II 16. Chris Carson 17. Devonta Freeman 18. Marlon Mack 19. Leonard Fournette 20. Phillip Lindsay.
Wide receivers are up next week!
OK. I'll share one picture from next week as a preview.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)