Breakdown: NCHC hockey preview

My earliest memory of Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers is listening to the band's greatest hits album in the mid 1990s with one of my older cousins, who was probably in high school at the time. Looking back, she was pretty damn cool to listen to that. I remember specifically being drawn to the song "Mary Jane's Last Dance." Of course at the time, I was naive to who "Mary Jane" was, but as I grew older my love for the song never faded. I also learned to really appreciate the span of Petty, who had mega hits in the 70's, 80's and 90's. His 1994 album "Wildflowers" was brilliant, and contains one of my favorite Petty songs of all time "You Don't Know How It Feels."

I'm writing all this because the world lost another great one. R.I.P Tom Petty.

In honor of Petty, I've named my annual NCHC hockey preview to his 1977 hit, "Breakdown."

First, let's take a look at how I predicted the conference a year ago and how it actually shook out.

No. 1 in 2016-17: UND. Actual finish: 4 (35 pts). The Fighting Hawks weren't as powerful as I predicted.
No. 2 in 2016-17: Denver. Actual finish: 1 (59 pts). The Pioneers were a dominant force a year ago, eventually riding their amazing regular season to a National Championship.
No. 3 in 2016-17: SCSU. Actual finish: 5 (31 pts). I overestimated my alma mater. The Huskies didn't have the fire power I figured that their young talents would provide, plus they were average at goalie.
No. 4 in 2016-17: UNO. Actual finish: 6 (29 pts) Way off, though I predicted they'd be tough to predict, which was true.
No. 5 in 2016-17: Miami. Actual finish: 7 (23 pts) Miami had one of its worst seasons in the past two decades.
No. 6 in 2016-17: UMD. Actual finish: 2 (52 pts) Boy was I off about the Bulldogs having a down year. They went all the way to the national finals.
No. 7 in 2016-17: Western Mich. Actual finish: 3 (42 pts) It was quite the leap that the senior-led Broncos went on a year ago, which I don't think anyone predicted for the perennially bottom half team.
No. 8 in 2016-17: CC. Actual finish: 8 (17). The Tigers have been cellar dwellers for years, and this was the easiest pick to make and I nailed it.

As you can see, predicting is a fickle business, even in an eight-team college hockey conference. However, I did my research and hopefully 2017-18 will prove to be better to me. Here are my thoughts on the upcoming season.

1. Denver: There should be little chance the defending champs stay on top. They return most of their scoring from a year ago as well as goaltender Tanner Jaillet. Denver also has a strong recruiting class, though they will be a bit thinner at D without Will Butcher and others that left/graduated. The key to the Pioneers' season will be keeping Jailet healthy.
2. North Dakota: A lot of fellow prognosticators have the Hawks closer to where they were a year ago, but I think they should really be solid. They will be stout in net with Cam Johnson back for his senior year, and that is going to be a key. They will need to find a replacement in scoring for departed star Brock Boeser, who left early for the NHL.
3. SCSU: The Huskies should be much better on offense this year as most everyone returns and should be a year older and more improved. Goalie might still be a question mark as Jeff Smith is back as a sophomore, but was decidedly average a year ago. Slovakian David Hrenak could challenged for spot.
4. UMD: The Bulldogs should drop quite a bit as goaltender Hunter Miska left early for the pros as did a couple other players. Scoring should be pretty good yet, but defense is also a bit of a question mark. The key though will be finding a replacement for Miska, who was sensational last year.
5. Miami: Miami should be back in semi-contention and around 30 pts this year. They do lose top scorer Louis, but return most of the rest of its scoring and defense. Recruits were light, but the key for the Red Hawks is goalie Ryan Larkin. If he makes a huge sophomore leap, Miami could get a home playoff series.
6. UNO: Head Coach Dean Blais is gone, so a new era begins for Omaha. Goalies all come back, but they weren't particularly good, plus they lose Ortega, their leading scorer. Recruits were pretty good, but the key will be new coach and former Red Hawk defenseman Mike Gabinet. It could be a bit of rebuilding year. 
7. Western Michigan: Two of the Broncos' best left early for the pros. Several others graduated, so the Cinderella story from a year ago looks to be headed back down near the cellar. Recruits are weak apart from Josh Passolt, but the key will be to replace scoring, which could prove difficult. 
8. Colorado College: Bergh and LeClerc return, but Gerdes and Hansen are gone. However, the Tigers were not good a year ago. Can recruits such as Vanderbeck make them better? That will be key. 

Anyhow, that is how it will happen. I'd say five of the teams will make the NCAA as UMD and Miami both squeak in as four seeds. Denver will be a one. UND will be a two and SCSU a three seed. I'm looking forward to a good season. 

For sports photos from the week of Sept. 21-26. Click here.